Economía conductual y economía cuántica: perspectivas alternativas sobre las crisis económicas y financieras
Resumen
Este artículo aborda las crisis económicas desde un enfoque interdisciplinario e integra las perspectivas de la economía conductual y la economía cuántica para superar las limitaciones de los modelos tradicionales. Se destaca cómo la economía conductual, al analizar sesgos cognitivos y emocionales (como la aversión al riesgo y la mentalidad de rebaño), proporciona herramientas prácticas (como los nudges) para mitigar los efectos de las crisis. Por otro lado, la economía cuántica aplica conceptos como la superposición y el entrelazamiento para modelar la incertidumbre y las conexiones sistémicas en los mercados financieros. A través de un análisis teórico y recomendaciones prácticas, el artículo subraya la necesidad de adoptar enfoques holísticos que combinen estos paradigmas para fomentar la estabilidad financiera. Se plantean medidas concretas, como la incorporación de principios interdisciplinarios en políticas públicas y el desarrollo de herramientas analíticas avanzadas. Este enfoque representa un paso hacia la comprensión y gestión efectiva de los desafíos económicos contemporáneos y ofrece una base para futuras investigaciones y aplicaciones en contextos globales.
Descargas
Citas
Akerlof, G. A., & Shiller, R. J. (2010). Animal spirits: How human psychology drives the economy, and why it matters for global capitalism. Princeton University Press.
Arnott, R. D., Hsu, J., Kalesnik, V., & Tindall, P. (2013). The surprising alpha from Malkiel’s monkey and upside-down strategies. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 39(4), 91-105.
Banerjee, A. V. (1992). A simple model of herd behavior. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107(3), 797-817. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118364
Barber, B., & Odean, T. (2000). Trading is hazardous to your wealth: the common stock investment performance of individual investors. Journal of Finance, 55(2), 773-806. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00226
Barberis, N., & Thaler R. (2003). A survey of behavioral finance. En G. Constantinedes, M. Harris & R. Stulz (Eds.), Handbook of the economics of finance: Vol. 1 (pp. 1053-1128). Elsevier Science. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1574-0102(03)01027-6
Barberis, N., Shleifer, A., & Vishny, R. (1997). A model of investor sentiment (NBER Working Paper 5926). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w5926
Bikhchandani, S., & Sharma, S. (2000). Herd behavior in financial markets. IMF Economic Review, 47, 279-310. https://doi.org/10.2307/3867650
Brown, G. W., & Cliff, M. T. (2005). Investor sentiment and asset valuation. The Journal of Business, 78(2), 405-440. https://doi.org/10.1086/427633
Bruza, P. D., Wang, Z., & Busemeyer, J. R. (2015). Quantum cognition: A new theoretical approach to psychology. Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 19(7), 383-393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2015.05.001
Busch, P., Heinonen, T., & Lahti, P. (2007). Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. Physics reports, 452(6), 155-176. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2007.05.006
Cutler, D., Poterba, J., & Summers, L. (1990). Speculative dynamics and the role of feedback traders (NBER Working Paper 3243). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w3243
De Bondt, W. (1998). A portrait of the individual investor. European Economic Review, 42(3-5), 831-844. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0014-2921(98)00009-9
De Long, J. B., Shleifer, A., Summers, L. H., & Waldmann, R. J. (1990). Positive feedback investment strategies and destabilizing rational speculation. The Journal of Finance, 45(2), 379-395. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1990.tb03695.x
Dow, S. (2002). Economic methodology. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.15581/015.6.34221
Ericsson, K. A., Prietula, M. J., & Cokely, E. T. (2007). The making of an expert. Harvard Business Review, 85(7-8), 114-121.
Fischhoff, B., Slovic, P., & Lichtenstein, S. (1977). Knowing with certainty: The appropriateness of extreme confidence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 3(4), 552-564. https://doi.org/10.1037//0096-1523.3.4.552
Garber, P. M. (2000). Famous first bubbles: The fundamentals of early manias. MIT Press. https://doi.org/10.7551/mitpress/2958.001.0001
Gladwell, M. (2008). Outliers: The story of success. Little, Brown & Co. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2008-17323-000
Glaser, M., & Weber, M. (2007). Overconfidence and trading volume. The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, 32(1), 1-36. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10713-007-0003-3
Greenlaw, D., Hatzius, J., Kashyap, A. K., & Shin, H. S. (2008, 29 de febrero). Leveraged losses: Lessons from the mortgage market meltdown. Proceedings of the US monetary policy forum. https://doi.org/10.3386/w22897
Heiden, S., Klein, C., & Zwergel, B. (2013). Beyond fundamentals: Investor sentiment and exchange rate forecasting. European Financial Management, 19(3), 558-578. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-036x.2010.00593.x
Holtfort, T., & Horsch, A. (2024). Quantum economics: A systematic literature review. SocioEconomic Challenges, 8(1), 62-77. https://doi.org/10.61093/sec.8(1).62-77.2024
Ikeda, K., & Aoki, S. (2022). Theory of quantum games and quantum economic behavior. Quantum Information Processing, 21, 27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11128-021-03378-5
Kahneman, D. (2011). Thinking, fast and slow. Farrar, Straus, & Giroux. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/2011-26535-000
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (2000). Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk. En D. Kahneman & A. Tversky (Eds.), Choices, values, and frames (pp. 17-43). Cambridge University Press. (Obra original publicada en 1979)
Keynes, J. M. (1937). The general theory of employment. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 51(2), 209-223. https://doi.org/10.2307/1882087
Lichtenstein, S., & Fischhoff, B. (1977). Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 20(2), 159-183. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(77)90001-0
Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1952.tb01525.x
Markiel, B. G., & Fama, E. F. (1970). Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. The Journal of Finance, 25(2), 383-417. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1970.tb00518.x
Marshall, A. (s. f.). Principles of economics: An introductory volume. Macmillan & Co. (Obra original publicada en 1890)
Mirowski, P. (1989). More heat than light: economics as social physics, physics as nature’s economics. Cambridge University Press.
Nurmi, H. (1981). Approaches to collective decision making with fuzzy preference relations. Fuzzy Sets and Systems, 6(3), 249-259. https://doi.org/10.1016/0165-0114(81)90003-8
Orrell, D. (2016). A quantum theory of money and value. Economic Thought, 5(2), 19-36. http://et.worldeconomicsassociation.org/files/WEA-ET-5-2-Orrell.pdf
Orrell, D. (2018). Quantum economics. Economic Thought, 7(2), 63-81. http://www.worldeconomicsassociation.org/files/journals/economicthought/WEA-ET-7-2-Orrell.pdf
Orrell, D., & Houshmand, M. (2021). Quantum propensity in economics. Frontiers in Artificial Intelligence, 4. https://doi.org/10.3389/frai.2021.772294
Pareto, V. (2020). Manual de economía política. Editorial Aranzadi. (Obra original publicada en 1906)
Pikler, A. G. (1955). Utility theories in field physics and mathematical economics (II). The British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 5(20), 303-318. https://doi.org/10.1093/bjps/v.20.303
Pugh, T. (2013). Fiscal austerity and quantitative easing: a modern monetary critique of the mainstream neoclassical view. SSRN Electric Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2454218
Raimond, J. M., Brune, M., & Haroche, S. (2001). Manipulating quantum entanglement with atoms and photons in a cavity. Reviews of Modern Physics, 73(3), 565. https://doi.org/10.1103/revmodphys.73.565
Reinhart, C. M., & Rogoff, K. S. (2009). This time is different. Eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press.
S&P Dow Jones Indices. (2024). SPIVA report. https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/spiva/
Scharfstein, D. S., & Stein, J. C. (1990). Herd behavior and investment. American Economic Review, 90(3), 705-706. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.3.705
Sharma, M. S., & Bikhchandani, S. (2000). Herd behavior in financial markets: A review. [Working Paper 00/048]. International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2000/wp0048.pdf
Sharpe, W. (1964). Capital asset prices: A theory of market equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of Finance, 19(3), 425-442. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-6261.1964.tb02865.x
Shefrin, H., & Statman, M. (2000). Behavioral portfolio theory. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 35(2), 127-151. https://doi.org/10.2307/2676187
Shiller, R. J. (1995). Conversation, information, and herd behavior. The American Economic Review, 85(2), 181-185. https://econpapers.repec.org/RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:85:y:1995:i:2:p:181-85
Sieber, J. (1974). Effects on decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncertainty. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 30(5), 688-694. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0037416
Slater, M., Sadagic, A., Usoh, M., & Schroeder, R. (2000). Small-group behavior in a virtual and real environment: a comparative study. Presence: Teleoperators and Virtual Environments, 9(1), 37-51. https://doi.org/10.1162/105474600566600
Smith, A. (2018). An inquiry into the nature and causes of the wealth of nations (E. Cannan, Ed.; Vol. 1). EconLib. https://www.econlib.org/library/Smith/smWN.html (Obra original publicada en 1776)
Smith, E., & Foley, D. K. (2008). Classical thermodynamics and economic general equilibrium theory. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 32(1), 7-65. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jedc.2007.01.020
Staël von Holstein, C.-A. S. (1972). Probability forecasting: An experiment related to the stock market. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 8(1), 139-158. https://doi.org/10.1016/0030-5073(72)90041-4
Svenson, O. (1981). Are we all less risky and more skillful than our fellow drivers? Acta Psychologica, 47(2), 143-148. https://doi.org/10.1016/0001-6918(81)90005-6
Szyszka, A. (2010). Belief and preference-based models. En H. K. Baker & J. Nofsinger (Eds.), Behavioral finance. Investors, corporations, and markets (pp. 351-372). John Wiley & Sons. https://doi.org/10.1002/9781118258415.ch19
Tetlock, P. E., & Gardner, D. (2016). Superforecasting: The art and science of prediction. Random House.
Thaler, R. (1985). Mental accounting and consumer choice. Marketing Science, 4(3), 177-266. https://doi.org/10.1287/mksc.4.3.199
Thaler, R. (1990). Anomalies. Savings, fungibility, and mental accounts. Journal of Economic Perspective, 4(1), 193-205. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.4.1.193
Thaler, R. (1999). Mental accounting matters. Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 12(3), 183-206. https://doi.org/10.1002/(sici)1099-0771(199909)12:3<183::aid-bdm318>3.0.co;2-f
Thaler, R. H., & Sunstein, C. R. (2009). Nudge: improving decisions about health, wealth, and happiness. Yale University Press.
Trueman, B. (1994). Analyst forecasts and herding behavior. The Review of Financial Studies, 7(1), 97-124. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/7.1.97
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (2002). Extensional versus intuitive reasoning. En T. Gilovich, D. W. Griffin & D. Kahneman (Eds.), Heuristics and biases: the psychology of intuitive judgment (pp. 19-48). Cambridge University Press.
Von Neumann, J., & Morgenstern, O. (1944). Theory of games and economic behavior. Princeton University Press. https://psycnet.apa.org/record/1945-00500-000
Walras, L. (2014). Elements of theoretical economics. Cambridge University Press. (Obra original publicada en 1900)
Weinberg, S. (1995). The quantum theory of fields: Vol. 1. Foundations. Cambridge University Press.
Wermers, R. (1999). Mutual fund herding and the impact on stock prices. The Journal of Finance, 54(2), 581-622. https://doi.org/10.1111/0022-1082.00118
