Corrupción, riesgo país, inversión y crecimiento: un análisis VAR bayesiano para el Perú
Resumen
Este artículo analiza los efectos de la percepción de corrupción en la inversión privada, el crecimiento económico y el riesgo país en la economía peruana, utilizando datos trimestrales del 2004q2 al 2019q2. La estimación se realiza mediante un modelo bayesiano de vectores autorregresivos (BVAR), que permite incorporar información previa sobre la relación entre las variables y supera a los modelos VAR clásicos en el caso de muestras pequeñas. Los resultados muestran que la percepción de corrupción tiene un efecto negativo en la inversión privada y el crecimiento económico, lo que abona a favor de la hipótesis de arena en las llantas. Sin embargo, este efecto es estadísticamente significativo solo en el periodo inicial, pues luego tiende a desaparecer, lo que puede explicarse por el hecho de que la corrupción está “naturalizada” en el Perú. Siguiendo este argumento, los shocks en la corrupción no representan una alteración sustancial en el sistema económico, ya que este aspecto está incorporado en las expectativas de los inversores. Por otro lado, se encuentra que estos shocks tienen un efecto positivo y más permanente sobre el riesgo país, lo que se debería principalmente a la inestabilidad política que surge como consecuencia de los escándalos de corrupción.
Citas
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