Evaluando la diversificación productiva a través de modelos de transición suave
Resumen
Con la finalidad de explicar por qué la diversificación en el Perú ha mostrado una reversión hacia la concentración de la cartera exportadora, se recurre a modelos econométricos de transición suave para reducir las restricciones en los parámetros que caracterizan la relación entre dos variables de interés: la diversificación y la infraestructura productiva, medida a través de la potencia eléctrica. Con ello se encuentra que, los precios de los commodities, como variable de transición, revierten la relación entre las variables de interés mencionadas; asimismo, se determina que las variaciones porcentuales de la potencia eléctrica han contribuido a la concentración de las ventas peruanas en menos líneas de exportación; y, de forma contraria, fomenta la diversificación respecto al valor de las mismas, medidas por medio de los márgenes extensivo e intensivo del índice de Theil, respectivamente.
Citas
Aditya, A., & Acharyya, R. (2013). Export diversification, composition, and economic growth: evidence from cross-country analysis. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 22(7), 959-992.
Agosin, M., Alvarez, R., & Bravo-Ortega, C. (2011). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1692-2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01395.x
Akram, Q. F. (2009). Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar. Energy Economics, 31(6), 838-851.
Al-Marhubi, F. (2000). Export diversification and growth: an empirical investigation. Applied Economics Letters, 7(9), 559-562.
Alomari, M. W., & Bashayreh, A. G. (2020). Modeling the exports diversification in the oil countries growth: the case of Gulf Cooperation Council countries. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 10(3), 119-129.
Atil, A., Lahiani, A., & Nguyen, D. (2014). Asymmetric and nonlinear pass-through of crude oil prices to gasoline and natural gas prices. Energy Policy, 65, 567-573.
Baldwin, R., & Lopez-Gonzalez, J. (2013). Supply-chain trade: a portrait of global patterns and several testable hypotheses [Working Paper 18957]. National Bureau of Economic Research.
Banco Central de Reserva del Perú. (2006). Reporte de inflación. https://www.bcrp.gob.pe/docs/Publicaciones/Reporte-Inflacion/2006/setiembre/ri-setiembre-2006-recuadro-2.pdf
Banco Mundial. (2020). Data Bank. World development indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
Banco Mundial. (2021). Pink sheet. https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Bigio, S., & Salas, J. (2006). Efectos no lineales de choques de política monetaria y de tipo de cambio real en economías parcialmente dolarizadas: un análisis empírico para el Perú [Documento de trabajo n.° 2006-08]. Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
Boubakri, S., Guillaumin, C., & Silanine, A. (2019). Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: the case of commodity-exporting countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 60(40), 212-228.
Bucci, A., Palomba, G., Rossi, E., & Faragalli, A. (2021). Vector logistic smooth transition models: realiced covariances. https://github.com/andbucci/starvars
Cadot, O., Carrere, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what’s behind the hump? The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605.
Cagli, E., Taskin, D., & Mandaci, P. (2019). The short- and long-run efficiency of energy, precious metals, and base metals markets: evidence from the exponential smooth transition autoregressive models. Energy Economics, 84, 1-9.
Canh, P. N., & Thanh, S. D. (2020). Export diversification, export quality, global sample, non-linear effects, shadow economy. Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 29(7), 865-890.
Chen, J., Zhu, X., & Zhong, M. (2019). Nonlinear effects of financial factors on fluctuations in nonferrous metals prices: a Markov-switching VAR analysis. Resources Policy, 61, 489-500.
Cuñado, J., & Pérez de Gracia, F. (2003). Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries. Energy Economics, 24(2), 137-154.
Dennis, A., & Shepherd, B. (2011). Trade facilitation and export diversification. The World Economy, 34(1), 101-122.
Di Salvo, M. (2015). Non-linearity between export diversification and economic growth [Tesis de maestría]. Erasmus University.
Elms, D., & Low, P. (2013). Global value chains in a changing world. WTO Secretariat.
Fahmy, H. (2019). Classifying and modeling nonlinearity in commodity prices using Incoterms. The Journal of International Trade y Economic Development, 28(8), 1-29.
Feenstra, R., Inklaar, R., & Timmer, M. (2015). The next generation of the Penn World Table. American Economic Review, 105(10), 3150-3182.
Garrido-Prada, P., Delgado-Rodríguez, M., & Romero-Jordán, D. (2019). Effect of product and geographic diversification on company performance: evidence during an economic crisis. European Management Journal, 37(3), 269-286.
Giri, R., Quayyum, S. N., & Yin, R. J. (2019). Understanding export diversification: key drivers and policy implications [Working Paper 19/105]. International Monetary Fund.
Hartmann, D., Guevara, M., Jara-Figueroa, C., Aristarán, M., & Hidalgo, C. (2017). Linking economic complexity, institutions and income inequality. World Development, 93, 75-93.
Hausmann, R., Hwang, J., & Rodrik, D. (2007). What you export matters. Journal of Economic Growth, 12(1), 1-25.
Herzer, D., & Nowak-Lehnmann D., F. (2006). What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis. Applied Economics, 38(15), 1825-1838.
Hidalgo, C., & Hausmann, R. (2009). The building blocks of economic complexity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106(26), 10570-10575.
Hotelling, H. (1931). The economics of exhaustible resources. Journal of Political Economy, 39(2), 137-175.
Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Association stages of diversification. The American Economic Review, 93(1), 63-86.
International Monetary Fund. (2014). Sustaining long-run growth and macroeconomic stability in low-income countries [IMF Policy Papers]. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/030514.pdf
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020a). Exportación FOB, según principales productos 2013-2019. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/economia/
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020b). Perú: producto bruto interno según actividad económica (Nivel 54) 2007-2019. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/economia/
Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. (2020c). Potencia eléctrica instalada. https://www.inei.gob.pe/estadisticas/indice-tematico/economia/
Kiliç, R. (2004). Linearity test and stationarity. The Econometrics Journal, 7(1), 55-62.
Krugman, P., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. (2012). Economía internacional. Teoría y política (9.ª ed.). Pearson Educación.
Kurmajit, M., Bhattacharyya, I., & Bhoi, B. (2012). Is the oil price pass-through in India any different? Journal of Policy Modeling, 34(6), 832-848.
Landa Arroyo, Y. (2020). Industrial policies of countries with abundant natural resources in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Pacific Alliance. The Extractive Industries and Society, 7(3), 1046-1053.
Le, T.-H., Nguyen, C. P., Su, T. D., & Tran-Nam, B. (2020). The Kuznets curve for export diversification and income inequality: evidence from a global sample. Economic Analysis and Policy, 65, 21-39.
Mania, E., & Rieber, A. (2019). Product export diversification and sustainable economic growth in developing countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 51, 138-151.
Munir, K., & Javed, Z. (2018). Export composition and economic growth: evidence from South Asian countries. South Asian Journal of Business Studies, 7(2), 225-240.
Nieminen, M. (2020). Multidimensional financial development, exporter behavior and export diversification. Economic Modelling, 93, 1-12.
Ohlin, B. (1935). Interregional and international trade. Harvard University Press.
Osakwe, P. N., & Kilolo, J.-M. (2018). What drives export diversification? New evidence from a panel of developing countries [UNCTAD Research Paper n.° 3]. https://unctad.org/es/node/27367
Parteka, A., & Tamberi, M. (2013). What determines export diversification in the development process? Empirical assessment. The World Economy, 36(6), 807-826.
Rafiq, S., & Bloch, H. (2016). Explaining commodity prices through asymmetric oil shocks: evidence from nonlinear models. Resources Policy, 50, 34-48.
Ruppert, D., & Matteson, D. (2015). Statistics and data analysis for financial engineering (2.a ed.). Springer.
Simoes, A., & Hidalgo, C. (2011). The Economic Complexity Observatory: an analytical tool for understanding the dynamics of economic development. En Scalable Integration of Analytics and Visualization: Papers from the 2011 AAAI Workshop (WS-11-17) (pp. 39-42). https://www.aaai.org/ocs/index.php/WS/AAAIW11/paper/view/3948/4325
Smith, A. (1958). Investigación de la naturaleza y causas de la riqueza de las naciones. Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Teräsvirta, T., & Yang, Y. (2014). Specification, estimation and evaluation of vector smooth transition autoregressive models with applications [Research Paper n.° 2014-8]. CREATES.
Theil, H. (1973). Statistical decomposition analysis. London North-Holland.
Timmer, M., Erumban, A., Los, B., Stehrer, R., & De Vries, G. (2014). Slicing up global value chains. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 99-118.
Ur Rehman, F., Ahmad, E., Asif Khan, M., Popp, J., & Oláh, J. (2021). Does trade related sectoral infrastructure make Chinese exports more sophisticated and diversified? Sustainabiliy, 13(10), 1-21.
Weedy, B. M., Cory, B. J., Jenkins, N., Ekanayake, J. B., & Strbac, G. (2012). Electric power systems. Wiley.
Xuefeng, Q., & Yasar, M. (2016). Export market diversification and firm productivity: evidence from a large developing country. World Development, 82, 28-47
Derechos de autor 2022 Desafíos: Economía y Empresa
Esta obra está bajo licencia internacional Creative Commons Reconocimiento 4.0.